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From several international index comparisons
Pinay escort“China Power”
Reposted from: WeChat Public NumberPinay escort“China Power”
Xue Meimei, Liu Kaiyan, Miao Zhongquan, Mao Jikang
International Dynamics Research Team‘s suitcase slipped over the blue ground tiles, leaving two water marks.
The International Power Research and Development Team collected data and sorted out the three types of international indexes, namely global price index, emergency index and international oil price, and made preliminary application of the historical global dynamic crisis. It believes that it was the past and the present. The previous stage of dynamic crisis is an important characterization of oil crisis. Oil prices and price indexes can respond to fluctuations better, and emergency indexes tend to respond to investment expectations; in the future, when natural and power crises, demand will increase more similar international indexes.We have followed the analysis and set up eight-think scenarios of global dynamic crisis.
1. Overview of three international indexes and analysis of availability
The global price index and emergency index are all daily indexes, and have strong temporary effectiveness and availability similar to global oil prices, and cover more commodity products, financial markets and currency markets, which can reflect the fluctuations of global dynamic products at a certain level.
International oil prices are important for the three basic crude oil prices of Brent, WTI and Dubai. For a long time, the oil crisis has become an important characterization of the entire ball dynamic crisis. According to IEA data, in 2019, oil accounted for more than 31% of the world’s primary power application structure, coal ranked second with 27%, followed by natural gas accounted for 23%. For a long time, global oil has accounted for more than 40%, and for natural atmosphere, it has only gradually exceeded 20% in the past 20 years. Therefore, in the field of power, in the past and in core international journals, he has published hundreds of articles, and has been the current stage of famous universities. Oil is similar to coal in the world to China. Global dynamic crisis is mostly caused by the situation of oil crisis. As an important chemical raw material, oil price fluctuations also directly affect global commodity prices. However, in the future, natural atmosphere and electricity will double the main color in the dynamic structure, and the demand for indicators similar to oil prices will reflect the crisis of other important power products. The index can obtain real-time data from the New Exchange, London Futures Buying Sellers and Dubai Futures Buying Sellers, as well as historical data from third parties such as BP Dynamic Statistics Year, IEA, EIA, etc.
The Global Price Index (RJ/CRB) is a commodity futures price index compiled by the american commodity research and development. It is obtained from the price plus the right of the recent monthly futures contracts of 19 commodities such as power, metal, and agricultural products. It can predict the fluctuations in the price of large quantities of commodities, especially the fluctuations in the price of dynamic products. Similarly, CSugar babyRB also derives the series of related indexes. For example, the CRB current index is compiled by american based on the current price of 22 economically sensitive products. In addition to the comprehensive index, it also includes metal index, fabric products and standard equipment.Index, animal and product index, fat and oil index, industrial raw material index and food material index, six sub-indexes of more detailed dimensions, but the dynamic product index is not covered. CRB indexes can obtain a total of index historical data from their official website or some data service providers such as Trading Economics.
Emergency Index (VIX) refers to the standard Pul500 volatility index compiled by Chicago Futures (CBOE). Its value is the risk-neutral hope of the variance of the standard Pul500 index in the next 30-day standard Pul500 index. According to the annualized standard, forward-looking market risks, fear or pressure predictions can be achieved. The larger the market volatility, the higher the VIX value, the more “urgent” investors are. But be aware of the “urgency” here, which includes both positive and reverse. That is, high VIX does not mean this bear market, but investors expect that the market will have a lot of fluctuations. Similarly, Chicago Futures Buying Sellers also have a series of similar indexes, including crude oil ETF volatility index, power industry ETF volatility index, Chinese ETF volatility index, gold ETF volatility index, etc. Investors always double their sensitivity, so by choosing the right one can reflect the price fluctuations of power products at a certain level. This index can be obtained directly from Chicago futures purchases.
2. Preliminary application of the index of global dynamic crisis events
Petroleum has gone to the world with its burning heat beyond coal, and has jointly made the “second industrial reaction” marked by internal combustion engines. After the Second War, China Eastern Petroleum’s new discoveries have caused the world’s oil production to increase rapidly, and Europe and the United States have begun to enter the oil era. The world has developed from comparable growth to the obvious advantages of oil and gas. Therefore, the three classic oil crisis that occurred in the second half of the last century, as shown in the figure below, has obvious global dynamic crisis characteristics.
Figure 1 1960-2000 International crude oil prices and the time of the three oil crisis
Because it has been 30-50 years since the three oil crisis, the Ministry’s international index failed to check the detailed monthly data, only Sugar baby department data for analysis. However, from international indexes such as global price index, some trendy phenomena can be found, or some new knowledge may be added.
1.Sugar daddy Judging from the first oil crisis, the global inventory of goods showed a “caught off guard and responded to the sluggish” attitude.
The first oil crisis continued for a long time and the market responded slowly. First, from the perspective of continuous time, the first oil crisis lasted for nearly half a year (in October 1973, the China Eastern War caused the first oil crisis; in February 1974, under the american advocacy, a dynamic coordination group was established; the ban on transportation was terminated on March 18, 1974); from the perspective of global price index, since the oil crisis broke out in October 1973, the world price level did not begin to rise until November and December, and gradually recovered after the ban on transportation was terminated, as shown in Figure 2 below.
Figure 2 Changes in the global price index in the year before and after the first oil crisis
2. Judging from the second oil crisis, the global price inventory index showed an immediate impact and had deep and far-reaching consequences.
The second oil crisis was shocked by many parties, and its subsequent impact on economy was profound. Comparing Figure 2 and Figure 3, it can be seen that although the duration was not as long as the first oil crisis (Iran-Islamic reaction caused the second oil crisis from late 1978 to March 1979), the oil crisis began to be overturned by the Palestinian dynasty, and the market did not react normally like the first oil crisis, but almost immediately transmitted to seven important global price indexes. More importantly, the price level did not gradually fall back to the initial point like the first oil crisis, but remained stable at a high level in the majority of local price indexes. Some scholars believe that this has also become the main driving force of the global economic crisis from 1980 to 1982, and is even worse than the economic crisis from 1973 to 1975.
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